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Analyst predictions
Analyst predictions and forecasts for the Seventh generation of video games which includes the Wii, Xbox 360, Playstation 3, Playstation Portable, and Nintendo DS. outsells Wii in 2012 in Lifetime sales (May 2008)]] 2008 *DFC: PS3 to Overtake 360 worldwide in 2009 : By 2011, more than 180 million consoles sold. PS3 to surpass 360 in 2009. Software sales for the PlayStation 3 will surpass software sales for the Wii in 2012 when software sales are already on the decline. *The state of the next-gen video game console (May 2008) : Pidgeon suggested that by 2012, the PS3 will lead the pack, with more than 107 million units sold worldwide, while the Wii will be just behind, at nearly 107 million units. *Taiwan Economic News: "Xbox 540" in Fall 2009 *Game Informer: Next systems - Nintendo, Microsoft in 2010, Sony in 2012 (more speculation than predictions or analysis) *DFC: Europe Wii sales will out pace both the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 : DFC Intelligence now forecasts that (in Europe), over the next five years, sales of the Wii will out pace both the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3. *Ubisoft: Wii To Rule Them All, Microsoft/Sony Battle Split In U.S/Europe *Lazard Capital: U.S. 2008 forecasts increase : Raised 2008 US Wii sales estimates from 6.5 million to 8.5 million units, and PS3 sales from 4.5 million to 4.7 million and boosted 2008 DS estimates from 5.9 million to 6.4 million and PS2 from 2.5 million to 3 million. He reiterated his Xbox 360 sales forecast of 4.8 million during the year and PSP sales of 3.8 million. *Enterbrain: New DS at E3 2008 *Analysts estimate 26m Wii, 550 billion Yen operating profit for Nintendo this fiscal year *Pachter: 16.3 million PS3s and 21.3 million 360s in US and Europe by year-end *Pachter gives global 2008 hardware sales forecast *iSuppli: PS3 to Eek Out Console War Victory by 2011 2007 *Pachter: PS3 to 'Win' Console War Because of Blu-ray *Enterbrain Prez Predicts Thirty Million DS Systems in Japan *Next Generation Consoles Games publishing, hardware analysis and forecasts to 2010 (PDF sample - requesting full document) *Screen Digest:By 2011 the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii *Screen Digest: DS to have 89% Japanese install base by 2011, 112 million worldwide *New $99 PS2 in early 2008 2006 *Enterbrain: PS3 will lead Wii by Q4 2007 *Strategy Analytics: PlayStation 3 predicted to sell 121.8 million : The report predicts that Sony will sell 121.8 million PS3s worldwide through 2012. Sales of Xbox 360s are expected to reach 58.8 million and of Nintendo's Revolution nearly 23 million. Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47bn. *Merrill Lynch 2011 forecast: Xbox 360 and PS3 win, Wii loses : Worldwide: Xbox 360: 39%; PS3: 34%; Wii: 27%; *Merrill Lynch Estimates Huge PS3 Losses *IDG: Xbox 360 To Keep U.S. Lead Through 2009 more (June 2006) (updated October 2006) : Total Through 2008 (US) 360 - 15.5 million & PS3 - 13.5 million & Wii - 6.8 million & 17.6 million for PSP, and 20 million for DS *Enterbrain:Nintendo could beat Sony in console race in Japan : there will be big sales for the Wii from the very beginning. I feel this growth will slow a little from the third year, but altogether the sales will exceed 10 million units. He expects the PS3 to rack up total sales of between 9 and 10 million consoles by 2010 and the Xbox 360 to lag behind with 1 to 2 million. *DFC:Opinion: Could Sony Go From First to Worst? : ...distinct possibility the PlayStation 3 could end up third in market share behind both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii. The big problem with the PlayStation 3 is price... 1) Sony's hands may be tied in regard to price cuts and 2) Sony drastically underestimated the competition *Citigroup:Console expectations : Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008. *In Stat:Sony to Lead Game Consoles Through 2010 : Through 2010, the Sony PS3 will account for just over 50% of the installed base of next-generation consoles, while the Microsoft Xbox 360 will have 28.6%, and the Nintendo Revolution will have 21.2%, the high-tech market research firm says. *Nomura Securities:PS3 will outsell Wii by 60% : PS3 will sell 71 million units by 2011 compared with an estimated 40 million units for Wii. 2005 *Pachter: Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left - link 2 : In 2010, Sony's going to have 55 per cent, Microsoft's going to have 35 per cent and Nintendo 10 per cent *Piper Jaffray:US HW Sales estimates thru 2008 (New PSP model, 360 to lead) http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3144208 * Sony will garner 45%-50% hardware share, Microsoft will take 35%-40% hardware share and Nintendo will maintain 15% of the console hardware market in the U.S. Revolution~ 5.5 million, PlayStation 3~ 15.5 million, Xbox 360~ 19.6 million, Game Boy (line)~ 24 million HW Units in Millions 2005 2006 2007 2008 PS3 0 1 6 8.5 XBX 360 1.1 6 6.5 6 REVOLUTION 0 0.5 2 3 *Strategy Analytics:PlayStation 3 will destroy Xbox 360 and Wii : PS3 surpassing Microsoft’s market lead at the end of 2007 and rising to almost 60% market share by 2012. Ending 2012, PS3 - 121.8 million unit sales, xbox360 - 59.7 million sales, Wii will continue Nintendo’s downward home console spiral with a miserable 23.3 million units. 2004 *American Technology Research: Xbox for $99? Xbox 2 in 2005? Graphs Image:ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif|IDC:PS3, Wii, 360 (May 2008) Image:Screen_digest_2011_forecast.gif|ScreenDigest: Wii, PS3, 360 (Dec 2007) Image:IDG chart.png|IDG: PS3, 360, Wii (Oct 2006) Category:Market research